US Pressures Venezuela’s Cabello to Collaborate or Face Consequences

The United States has issued a stark warning to Venezuela’s powerful interior minister, Diosdado Cabello, indicating that his future could be jeopardized unless he aligns with Washington’s demands. This comes in the wake of the political upheaval following the ousting of former President Nicolás Maduro. The Trump administration suggests that Cabello may soon become a primary target unless he cooperates with interim President Delcy Rodriguez to ensure stability within the country.

Cabello, noted for his control over security agencies accused of significant human rights violations, is currently one of the few remaining Maduro loyalists tolerated by U.S. officials. The decision to maintain a working relationship with Cabello is viewed as necessary to prevent chaos during Venezuela’s transition. The administration believes that his influence is vital for keeping the state apparatus functioning immediately after Maduro’s removal. Nonetheless, there are concerns that Cabello’s hardline stance and rivalry with Rodriguez could pose a threat to the new administration.

Messages relaying the U.S. stance have reached Cabello through intermediaries, emphasizing that any resistance to cooperation could lead to dire consequences. Should he choose not to comply, he risks facing a fate similar to Maduro, who was captured in a U.S. operation and is now facing prosecution on narcotics-related terrorism charges. Alternatively, Cabello’s safety could be compromised.

Nevertheless, the potential for forcibly ousting Cabello carries its own risks. U.S. officials are wary that such an action could incite violence from pro-government motorcycle gangs known as colectivos, which might lead to the kind of unrest that Washington is striving to avoid. The response from these groups would likely hinge on whether they perceive other influential figures within the regime as willing to protect them.

In her initial actions as acting president, Rodriguez appointed General Gustavo González López as the new head of the Presidential Honour Guard and the Directorate General of Military Counterintelligence (DGCIM). González López, who has faced sanctions from both the U.S. and EU for corruption and human rights abuses, previously served as Venezuela’s intelligence director until mid-2024. His close ties to Cabello raise questions about whether this appointment signifies support for Cabello or hints at a growing rift within the government.

Rodriguez also named Calixto Ortega, the former president of the Central Bank, as Vice President of Economy. Additionally, Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino has emerged as another potential target for U.S. actions. Padrino, like Cabello, is under a U.S. drug trafficking indictment and faces a multimillion-dollar bounty. U.S. officials regard his cooperation as critical to maintaining stability due to his command of the armed forces.

A U.S. Justice Department official stated, “This remains a law enforcement operation, and we are not done yet.” They view Padrino as potentially less resistant to U.S. influence compared to Cabello, suggesting he may be more amenable to a negotiated exit.

The Trump administration has expressed the need for cooperation from Venezuela’s leadership to address illegal migration, drug trafficking, and revitalization of the oil sector. Rodriguez is seen as a key figure who may facilitate these objectives, allowing U.S. oil companies access to Venezuela’s vast reserves while preventing the necessity of deploying U.S. forces on the ground.

Currently, the administration is wary of the opposition, led by Nobel Peace Prize winner Maria Corina Machado, believing they would struggle to maintain order during this sensitive transition period. Instead, U.S. officials have concluded that Maduro’s top aides are better positioned to govern temporarily, fearing chaos if a forceful democratic transfer occurs.

While U.S. officials advocate for new elections in Venezuela, the timeline for such developments remains uncertain. The administration’s strategy is described as “very much still a work in progress.”

Among the demands made by Washington are a commitment to open the oil industry to U.S. companies, a crackdown on narcotics operations, the expulsion of Cuban security personnel, and a cessation of cooperation with Iran. U.S. officials expect to see tangible progress towards these objectives within a matter of weeks.

In addition to potential military actions, the U.S. could leverage Rodriguez’s financial assets, which are reportedly sheltered in Qatar. However, a Qatari official has disputed claims regarding Rodriguez’s financial holdings in the country.

U.S. authorities are also working to co-opt other senior officials within the Venezuelan government to facilitate a transition that aligns with American interests. Rodriguez is viewed as a crucial player in this strategy, with advisers believing she is open to working with the U.S. on transitioning and oil-related issues.

Both Rodriguez and Cabello, despite their roles in the government, have historically operated independently, raising questions about the future dynamics of their relationship as they navigate this turbulent political landscape. The coming weeks will be pivotal in determining whether the U.S. approach will stabilize Venezuela or exacerbate existing tensions within its leadership.