Congress Faces Electoral Decline as Rahul Gandhi Struggles for Relevance

The Indian National Congress is grappling with a significant decline in its electoral fortunes, particularly under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. The party has struggled to capitalize on its traditional vote bank across multiple states, including Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Jharkhand. With recent elections showcasing a diminishing presence, Congress has found itself relegated to junior status in many regions, including West Bengal, where it holds no significant power.

The party’s performance in the Bihar elections of 2025 illustrates this trend; Congress secured only 8.7% of the votes, a slight decrease from 9.48% in 2020. This decline reflects a broader erosion of grassroots support and has led to questioning from allies within the INDIA bloc, such as Shiv Sena-UBT and the Trinamool Congress. The party’s inability to connect with voters has resulted in significant criticism, as the once-dominant force in Indian politics struggles to find its footing.

The trajectory of Rahul Gandhi’s political career, which began in 2004, has been marked by a pattern of sporadic engagement. He tends to emerge with fervent speeches or social-media statements, only to retreat for extended periods. This inconsistency has hindered the Congress party’s ability to maintain a strong connection with the electorate. Since 2009, when his influence became more pronounced, Congress has lost 71 out of 83 assembly elections, highlighting a deep-seated structural decline rather than a temporary setback.

The Congress party’s performance in the Lok Sabha elections has also been troubling, as it faced defeats in 2014, 2019, and 2024. The party celebrated its tally of 99 seats in 2024 as a significant achievement, but this figure would have been deemed a crisis in previous decades. The current state of affairs raises concerns about the party’s acceptance of its diminished stature and suggests an urgent need for introspection and reform.

Once governing in eleven states, Congress now holds power in just three: Karnataka, Telangana, and Himachal Pradesh. In states like Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, it plays a minor role as a junior partner. This diminishing footprint underscores the scale of the organizational crisis within the party and the efforts required to restore its position as a national alternative.

As the Congress party contemplates its future, it faces a critical juncture. If it continues to garner less than 10% of the votes or a minimal seat share solely in opposition to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), it may be more beneficial to start anew. Building a robust cadre, implementing a succession plan across states, and promoting youth leaders could reinvigorate the party. The success of smaller parties like Jan Suraaj, which managed to secure 3.44% of the votes on its debut, and the Aam Aadmi Party, which formed governments in two states within a decade, suggests that revitalization is possible.

In order to regain its footing, the Congress party must prioritize listening to dissenting voices and gather ground-level feedback. This requires pulling Rahul Gandhi out of his inner circle and allowing his leadership to be informed by the realities on the ground. The party needs to ensure that the Congress flag is visible in every village and community, working toward a comprehensive reconstruction of its identity.

Looking ahead, upcoming elections in states such as Assam and West Bengal present opportunities for the party to test new strategies and reconnect with voters. While the path forward is challenging, there remains a sense of hope that Congress can rebuild its influence in Indian politics.