India to Submit Updated Climate Goals at COP 30 in November

India is set to submit its revised Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) during the upcoming U.N. Climate Change Conference, COP 30, which begins on November 10, 2023, in Brazil. Sources from the Environment Ministry have indicated that the updated targets will likely feature an enhanced focus on energy efficiency improvements.

The NDCs represent the renewable energy adoption goals established by countries as signatories to the Paris Agreement. This international accord mandates that nations regulate their fossil fuel consumption to limit global warming to less than 2°C above pre-industrial levels, aiming for a more ambitious target of 1.5°C. Under the agreement, countries are required to update their NDCs every five years.

India last revised its NDCs in 2022, committing to a reduction in the emissions intensity of its GDP by 45% from 2005 levels by 2030. The country also pledged to derive half of its electric power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources and to create a carbon sink of at least two billion tonnes. The emissions intensity of GDP measures the amount of carbon emitted per unit of economic output, and it does not necessarily equate to a decrease in total emissions.

As of December 2023, India reported to the U.N. climate-governing body that it had achieved a 33% reduction in emissions intensity from 2005 to 2019. Additionally, in June 2023, the country announced that it had successfully installed at least 50% of its power capacity from non-fossil fuel sources.

Focus on 2035 Emissions Targets

The upcoming NDCs, referred to as NDC 3.0, are expected to outline emissions reduction targets for 2035. As of now, only about 30 of the approximately 190 countries involved in the Paris Agreement have submitted their NDCs. It is common for nations to present their updated contributions just prior to the annual climate negotiations.

This year’s conference holds particular significance as the Brazilian presidency aims to assess the obstacles faced by countries in meeting their established NDCs. Despite global commitments, current projections indicate that even full compliance with these targets may only limit average global temperature rise to approximately 3°C by the end of the century, far exceeding the goals set by the Paris Agreement.

The European Union, traditionally a leader in climate action, has not yet announced a definitive target for 2035, although it aims for net-zero emissions by 2050. In July 2023, the EU Commission proposed an amendment to its climate law aimed at achieving a 90% reduction in emissions compared to 1990 levels by 2040. A vote to establish a target for 2035 was recently postponed due to interventions from France and Germany.

Australia has updated its NDCs this month, aiming for a 62%-70% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2035. Meanwhile, the status of China’s NDCs remains uncertain following the United States’ exit from the Paris Agreement.

Collaboration on Clean Energy Projects

The figures released thus far will contribute to a U.N. synthesis report expected next month, summarizing how far the global community is from achieving the targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. According to sources within India’s Environment Ministry, significant reductions in emissions could arise from bilateral agreements where developed and developing nations jointly invest in clean energy initiatives. Such arrangements would allow for sharing the resulting emission reductions as carbon credits.

India recently entered into a Joint Crediting Mechanism (JCM) agreement with Japan and is currently in discussions with other countries. However, officials caution that it will take several years before these projects become operational. “Developed countries are not willing to part with the necessary finance to make good on ambitious goals, while developing nations still require fossil fuels for their development,” an official from the Environment Ministry remarked.

Additionally, India plans to implement its Carbon Market by 2026, which will set mandatory emission intensity targets for 13 major sectors. This framework will allow sectors to trade any emission reductions via certificates, incentivizing efforts to meet and exceed targets.

As the global community prepares for COP 30, the emphasis on enhanced climate commitments is more critical than ever.