Five Critical Questions Shaping the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament

The 2025-2026 women’s NCAA basketball season commenced with renewed anticipation, following a relatively calm offseason compared to last year’s upheaval. The focus has shifted back to the court, and teams across the nation are now preparing for a season that will significantly influence their standings in the upcoming NCAA tournament. With Selection Sunday set for March 15, 2026, several key questions are emerging that could shape the tournament bracket.

Big Ten’s Nonconference Performance

One pressing inquiry is how the Big Ten Conference will perform in nonconference play. ESPN’s preseason bracket projections included an ambitious 13 teams from the Big Ten, a record that surpassed last season’s achievement of 12 teams. Among those projected, four teams—Nebraska, Oregon, Illinois, and Minnesota—are positioned as 9-seeds or lower, indicating that securing 13 bids will not be straightforward.

The depth of the Big Ten will be tested as teams enter their nonconference schedules. Success in these early games is essential for enhancing team profiles and improving the overall strength of schedule. A notable victory, such as a potential win by Michigan over teams like Notre Dame or UConn, would significantly bolster their resume and reflect positively on other Big Ten teams, including those they face later in the season.

South Carolina’s Adjustments Without Kitts

Another vital aspect to monitor is how the South Carolina Gamecocks will adjust following the season-ending injury to star player Chloe Kitts. Coach Dawn Staley has found herself with a less robust frontcourt, which complicates their strategy moving forward. In recent exhibition games, Staley opted for a three-guard lineup featuring Ta’Niya Latson, Tessa Johnson, and Raven Johnson, supported by Joyce Edwards and Madina Okot in the frontcourt.

This lineup may keep South Carolina competitive, but the depth remains a concern. The only frontcourt reserves, Maryam Dauda and Adhel Tac, averaged a combined 10.2 minutes per game last season. For the Gamecocks to maintain their status as a No. 1 seed, players like Okot need to step up and fill the void left by Kitts, who averaged 10.2 points and 7.7 rebounds per game last year.

USC’s New Look

The University of Southern California (USC) presents another intriguing storyline, particularly in light of the absence of JuJu Watkins, who is sidelined for the season due to a knee injury. With six of the seven players from last season’s rotation also missing, USC is effectively a new team. The lone returner, Kennedy Smith, brings experience but will face a steep learning curve with a largely inexperienced roster.

Despite the uncertainty, USC has attracted notable talent through transfers Kara Dunn and Londynn Jones, along with promising freshman Jazzy Davidson. The Trojans could potentially contend for a top-four seed or struggle to find their footing against a tough nonconference schedule and the rigors of the Big Ten, making them one of the most unpredictable teams in the AP Top 25.

Impact of SEC Standings

The Southeastern Conference (SEC) is another focal point, with five of its 16 teams projected to occupy the top two seed lines in preseason bracketology. Both South Carolina and Texas are anticipated to secure No. 1 seeds, while Oklahoma and Tennessee are pegged as No. 2 seeds. The dynamics of the SEC could play a crucial role in determining the overall structure of the NCAA tournament field.

Key matchups, such as South Carolina’s visit to Oklahoma on January 22 and Tennessee’s home game against Texas on February 15, could have significant implications. A loss for either South Carolina or Texas in these contests could tighten the standings, helping to elevate teams like the Sooners and Lady Volunteers.

Emerging Mid-Majors

Finally, the question of which mid-major programs will emerge as at-large candidates remains pertinent. The Ivy League has produced multiple bids in recent seasons, with Princeton and Columbia positioned to compete for NCAA tournament spots. Success for these teams will likely hinge on finishing at the top of the league standings and advancing to the Ivy Madness final.

The Missouri Valley Conference, featuring strong contenders like Murray State and Belmont, may also yield multiple bids this year. Notably, Belmont faces a challenging nonconference slate against prestigious programs such as Tennessee and Duke. A victory in any of these matchups, combined with a conference tournament win for Murray State, could lead to a historic outcome for the MVC.

As the season progresses, these questions will shape the landscape of the NCAA tournament and determine which teams will secure their place in March. The 2025-2026 women’s college basketball season is set to deliver excitement and surprises as teams strive for glory.