Punjab Stubble Burning Falls 20% but November Shows Spike

Instances of stubble burning in Punjab have decreased significantly, with reports indicating that the area affected by such fires in October 2023 was approximately 20% lower than the previous year. According to data obtained by The Hindu from a satellite-imagery firm and a senior official from the Punjab Pollution Control Board, the total burnt area in the districts of Amritsar, Taran Taran, and Ferozpur is estimated to be less than in 2022.

Despite this positive trend, experts caution that the first two weeks of November historically see a peak in agricultural fires across the region. As a result, there could be a notable increase in the burnt area. The Punjab government routinely shares daily fire counts but does not disclose the specific area affected. Understanding the relationship between fire counts and burnt areas is crucial for assessing the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing stubble burning, which has previously contributed up to 35% of winter pollution levels in Delhi.

Last November, The Hindu highlighted that the Punjab government’s claims of reduced farm fires were misleading because they focused solely on fire counts captured via satellite. In reality, the burnt area increased from 15.4 lakh hectares in 2022 to 19.1 lakh hectares in 2023. This rise is attributed to farmers burning stubble after satellite passes to evade detection. Notably, data for the burnt area in 2024 remains consistent with last year, at approximately 19.4 lakh hectares.

Delays in satellite imagery have also played a role in understanding this year’s stubble burning. Reports indicate that satellite images of farm fires in Punjab only became available around October 10, a delay attributed to heavy rains and flooding in September that affected harvest timelines. Between October 13 and October 28, the three districts recorded 515 fire events, accounting for roughly 55% of the 933 incidents reported across the state. During this period, approximately 2.46 lakh hectares were burnt in these districts, as analyzed by Suhora Technologies, a firm specializing in satellite imagery.

The analysis indicates that fire incidents began in localized areas before expanding. Affected tehsils included Ajnala and Khadur Sahib, with notable activity in Majitha and Baba Bakala. The satellite imagery utilized for this analysis was sourced from the Sentinel-2 Multi Spectral Instrument, which identifies burnt areas by examining how various wavelengths of light are reflected from affected landscapes.

Krunesh Garg, who served as the Member Secretary of the Punjab Pollution Control Board until September 2025, stated that last year, the same districts reported 3.15 lakh hectares of burnt area. “If it is indeed 2.46 lakh hectares, that is a reduction and is certainly a positive sign,” he remarked, adding that it reflects the effectiveness of measures implemented over the past five years. Garg noted that fires in the northeastern Punjab region typically begin early and conclude by the end of October.

Although the exact proportion of harvested cultivated land in these districts remains unclear, the week from October 28 to November 4 saw a significant spike in fire counts, increasing from 993 to 2,839, nearly tripling the cumulative October figures. This surge is attributed to the closing window for sowing wheat, which must be completed by November 15. Whether this translates to a significant reduction in burnt area is yet to be determined.

An official from the Central Pollution Control Board, who preferred to remain anonymous, indicated that “early reports” suggest a reduction in burnt area compared to last year. Environment Minister Bhupendra Yadav mentioned during a recent briefing that a comprehensive report on the situation would be available later this month. He emphasized that several teams from the Centre are collaborating closely with the Punjab government to monitor stubble burning.

This year, the total area under paddy cultivation in Punjab was around 32 lakh hectares, with approximately one-third already harvested. The ongoing efforts to manage stubble burning continue to be a priority for both state and central authorities as they seek to balance agricultural practices with environmental health.