Surge in AI Investments Expected to Boost U.S. Economy by 2026

Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to experience a significant surge in 2026, as companies aim to enhance their spending to align with the rapidly evolving AI landscape. According to a report from Fitch Ratings, this increase in AI-driven private-sector investments is expected to mitigate the adverse effects of recent tariff hikes on the U.S. economy.

Fitch’s analysis indicates that while global economic growth is anticipated to slow, the resilience of the U.S. economy is partially attributed to robust investment in AI technologies. The report forecasts that world GDP growth will decline to 2.5 percent in 2025, down from 2.9 percent in 2024, while U.S. economic growth is expected to fall to 1.8 percent in 2025, a decrease from 2.8 percent in the previous year.

The initial predictions suggested a more pronounced slowdown for the U.S. economy following the increase in tariff rates. However, Fitch noted that the anticipated “tariff shock” was less severe than expected, coinciding instead with a significant rise in private-sector spending linked to the AI boom.

AI Investments Transforming Economic Landscape

The report highlights the notable increase in IT investment reflected in national accounts, supported by data from leading U.S. technology firms. Notably, capital spending by AI hyperscalers, including the so-called “Magnificent 7” companies, has doubled since 2023, reaching approximately USD 400 billion as firms invest heavily in data centers. Corporate strategies also suggest continued growth in AI-related investments through 2026.

Fitch indicates that the ongoing AI boom is already influencing macroeconomic conditions. In the first half of 2025, IT capital spending accounted for nearly 90 percent of U.S. GDP growth, showcasing the profound impact AI is having on investment trends. Additionally, the equity market rally driven by AI advancements could contribute an extra 0.4 percentage points to consumer spending, further bolstering the economy.

The report also notes that the current momentum in IT capital expenditures has not led to an increase in corporate leverage at the aggregate level. Revisions to forecasts for private capital expenditures are helping to alleviate some of the economic strain caused by tariff increases. Overall, Fitch emphasizes that the rising tide of AI-related investments is emerging as a vital counterbalance to the economic challenges posed by higher tariffs, while simultaneously setting the stage for long-term structural change within the economy.

In summary, the anticipated acceleration in AI investment by 2026 could play a crucial role in reshaping the U.S. economic landscape, offering a pathway to navigate the complexities posed by global trade dynamics and tariff impacts.