Bihar Exit Polls Indicate NDA Victory, Mahagathbandhan Trails

The exit poll results from Bihar’s recent assembly elections suggest a significant lead for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), indicating a potential return to power. These predictions, which come from at least 11 different pollsters, place the opposing Mahagathbandhan alliance in a distant second position. Official results are set to be announced by the Election Commission of India following the counting of votes on November 14, 2025.

According to the exit polls, ten out of the eleven surveyed forecasted a decisive victory for the NDA, while only one hinted at a closer contest between the ruling coalition and the Mahagathbandhan. The exit polls serve as post-voting surveys aimed at gauging voter preferences and predicting election outcomes. While these projections can vary in accuracy, they provide a snapshot of public sentiment and possible electoral trends.

Predictions from Pollsters

The projections indicate a comfortable win for the NDA, with estimates suggesting they could secure between 121 and 209 seats in the 243-member Bihar Assembly. For instance, the poll by Poll Diary predicts the NDA could win a staggering 184-209 seats, whereas Axis My India forecasts a lower range of 121-141 seats. In contrast, the Mahagathbandhan is expected to secure between 32 and 118 seats, with the highest estimate from Axis My India and the lowest from Poll Diary.

The detailed projections from various pollsters are as follows:

– **Axis My India**: NDA 121-141, MGB 98-118, JSP 0-2
– **Today’s Chanakya**: NDA 148-172, MGB 65-89, JSP –
– **Matrize**: NDA 147-167, MGB 70-90, JSP 0-2
– **P-Marq**: NDA 142-162, MGB 80-98, JSP 1-4
– **Peoples Pulse**: NDA 133-159, MGB 75-101, JSP 0-5
– **Bhaskar**: NDA 145-160, MGB 73-91, JSP –
– **People’s Insight**: NDA 133-148, MGB 87-102, JSP 0-2
– **JVC**: NDA 135-150, MGB 88-103, JSP –
– **Polstrat**: NDA 133-148, MGB 87-102, JSP –
– **Poll Diary**: NDA 184-209, MGB 32-49, JSP –
– **Vote Vibe**: NDA 125-145, MGB 95-115, JSP 0-2

Voter Sentiment and Leadership Preferences

Despite the NDA’s projected success, voter preference for the chief ministerial position reveals a surprising trend. RJD leader Tejashwi Yadav appears to be more favoured among voters than the incumbent, Nitish Kumar. For example, Axis My India reports that Yadav has a preference rate of 34%, compared to Kumar’s 22%. A similar survey by Peoples Pulse shows Yadav at 32% and Kumar at 30%.

The electoral landscape is further complicated by the presence of Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), which many anticipated would perform well. However, projections indicate that JSP may not secure any significant seats, with most forecasts placing them at 0-5 seats.

As the final results loom, the NDA’s strategy, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s long tenure at the national level and Kumar’s two decades in Bihar, seems to resonate with voters. Meanwhile, the Mahagathbandhan has criticized the NDA administration on several fronts, including allegations of corruption, while promising various reforms and welfare measures in its manifesto, such as job creation and financial aid for women.

The actual outcomes of the Bihar assembly elections will clarify the future political landscape as the Election Commission prepares to release the official results on November 14.