Prabowo Aims for Global Influence as Tariffs Loom over Indonesia

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto made a significant appearance at the BRICS Summit in Brazil this month, seeking to elevate Indonesia’s position on the global stage. However, his efforts were quickly overshadowed by an announcement from Donald Trump, the President of the United States, regarding a 32 percent general tariff on Indonesian goods entering the U.S. This tariff, initially revealed in April, was followed by an additional 10 percent tariff applicable to all BRICS members, including Indonesia.

Despite the challenging circumstances, President Prabowo managed to negotiate the tariff down to 19 percent after a phone call with Trump, describing the outcome as a result of “tough negotiation.” Nevertheless, this episode cast a shadow over his broader ambitions to redefine Indonesia’s foreign policy. His presidency, which began just nine months ago, is marked by a desire to transition from his predecessor Joko Widodo’s focus on domestic issues to a more assertive international presence.

Shifting Indonesia’s Foreign Policy Framework

Indonesia’s accession to BRICS in January 2023 reflects a strategic pivot towards a more proactive foreign policy. Prabowo aims to position Indonesia as a “bridge-builder” amid escalating global uncertainties. Unlike previous administrations that anchored Indonesia’s foreign policy within the framework of ASEAN, Prabowo is actively seeking to expand Indonesia’s influence in larger international arenas.

His participation in the St Petersburg International Economic Forum in June, where he shared the stage with Russian President Vladimir Putin, underscored this ambition. At the forum, he claimed that Indonesia’s process of joining BRICS was one of the fastest among member nations. Prabowo explained his choice to attend SPIEF over the G7 Summit in Canada by stating, “It is not because I didn’t respect the G7, but because I gave my commitment to attend this forum before they invited us.”

A Realist Approach to Geopolitics

Prabowo’s interest in geopolitics is evident from his past as Indonesia’s defence minister from 2019 to 2024. His controversial peace proposal for the Russia-Ukraine conflict, presented at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2023, drew criticism. The plan included creating a demilitarised zone and a United Nations-sponsored referendum in disputed territories, which Ukraine rejected outright.

His realist perspective prioritizes hard power in international relations, often at the expense of established international laws. During a press conference with French President Emmanuel Macron in Jakarta in May, he stated, “We must acknowledge and guarantee Israel’s rights as a sovereign country,” while emphasizing that Indonesia remains committed to recognizing Palestine once Israel does. This marks a notable shift in rhetoric, as no previous Indonesian president has explicitly promised recognition of Israel.

Despite his bold statements, Prabowo has maintained Indonesia’s traditional stance of withholding diplomatic ties until there is a recognized Palestinian state. Nonetheless, he has indicated a willingness to engage with Israel to work towards this goal. In April 2023, he offered to temporarily shelter 1,000 Palestinians affected by the conflict in Gaza, which would represent Indonesia’s most tangible commitment to the Palestinian cause to date.

Central to Prabowo’s approach is his ambition to usher in a new era where Indonesia “will rise as a great country.” This echoes the vision of Indonesia’s first president, Sukarno, who sought to create a third force among non-aligned nations during the Cold War era. Prabowo’s challenge lies in balancing Indonesia’s role as a middle-ranking power amidst global rivalries.

While his strategies aim to enhance Indonesia’s stature, they also reflect a personal ambition to forge a legacy distinct from his predecessors. As international tensions continue to rise, the world will be watching closely how Prabowo navigates these complex dynamics to assert Indonesia’s influence on the global stage.