India Shifts Focus from Rafale to Indigenous Fighter Jet Production

India’s approach to enhancing its air defense capabilities is undergoing a significant transformation. The government is shifting its focus from expanding the Rafale fighter jet fleet to accelerating the production of indigenous aircraft. This change is part of a broader strategy aimed at achieving self-reliance in advanced aviation technology, even if it means delaying foreign acquisitions.

The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently operates only 31 fighter squadrons, falling short of the 42 required to effectively defend the country’s airspace. This shortage has prompted senior officers to advocate for additional Rafale jets, citing their superior combat readiness. Recently, the IAF submitted a proposal for 114 Rafale aircraft, but the government has requested further details, indicating a desire for a clearer roadmap that includes local manufacturing and technology transfer. The estimated cost of this deal exceeds ₹2 lakh crore.

Government’s Shift Towards Domestic Production

Insiders reveal that the Indian government wants Dassault Aviation, the French manufacturer of Rafale, to produce key components in India. Defence experts caution that time is running out for this deal. A retired Air Force officer noted on the defence website IDRW that the “window for the Rafale deal is closing fast.” As India’s indigenous jets, notably the Tejas Mk-2 and the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), progress, justifying further Rafale purchases could become increasingly difficult.

The Tejas Mk-2, a 4.5-generation fighter jet, is making steady advancements. Its prototype is expected to be ready by mid-2026, with the first flight scheduled for 2027. Full-scale production could commence around 2029 or 2030. Meanwhile, the earlier version, Tejas Mk-1, is already in production, and the first batch will soon be delivered to the Air Force. The AMCA, which is designed to be a fifth-generation stealth fighter, is also under rapid development, with its prototype anticipated by 2030 and induction planned around 2035.

Challenges and Strategic Decisions

India has already acquired 36 Rafale jets for the Air Force and plans to purchase an additional 29 for the Navy. However, experts warn that any new Rafale deal would come with significant costs and delays. Even if an agreement were reached today, deliveries would not begin for at least three years. The government is advocating for deeper technology transfer and local manufacturing, which could further extend the negotiation timeline.

The overlapping timelines of the indigenous Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA raise important questions about the future of foreign jet investments. Should India invest billions in additional Rafale jets when its own aircraft will be ready soon?

Adding complexity to India’s defense strategy, Russia has proposed its fifth-generation Su-57E fighter jet, offering nearly complete technology transfer. This proposal could enhance India’s access to advanced aviation systems while reinforcing bilateral relations. However, the Indian government remains cautious, emphasizing the importance of building domestic capabilities over deepening foreign dependency.

The focus is now on accelerating the production of India’s own fighter jets. The government has instructed Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to increase output and engage more private sector players. HAL has opened its supply chain to Indian companies, aiming to establish a robust ecosystem for defense manufacturing. This strategy is not solely about aircraft; it encompasses a vision for independence, job creation, and long-term strategic strength.

Defence analysts suggest that with this shift in policy, the prospect of a third Rafale deal may be diminishing. The government’s growing confidence in Indian technology appears to favor homegrown solutions, positioning the Tejas Mk-2 and AMCA as the cornerstones of India’s future air defense strategy.