Trump and Xi Meet Amid Trade Tensions During Asia Tour

US President Donald Trump concluded a six-day tour of Asia, which included visits to Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea. While attending the ASEAN and APEC summits, the main focus was his discussions with newly-appointed Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and a highly anticipated meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. This meeting occurred at an airbase near Busan on October 29, 2023, amidst ongoing tensions arising from a trade standoff between the two nations.

Before meeting with President Xi, Trump highlighted the “fantastic relations for a long period of time” between the US and China, referring to Xi as a “distinguished and respected” leader. Despite this cordial language, just minutes before the meeting, Trump announced the resumption of nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with other nuclear powers. This statement followed Russia’s recent missile tests, which may have influenced Trump’s aggressive posture.

China is reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal, potentially to match the 1,550 deployed strategic weapons limit set by the US-Russia treaty, which will expire in under 100 days. While Trump expressed goodwill, the Chinese delegation maintained a pragmatic approach. In a recent address, Xi emphasized that “the balance of global power is undergoing profound adjustment,” calling for “extraordinary measures” to achieve breakthroughs in key technologies such as semiconductors and advanced materials.

Trump aimed to de-escalate the trade dispute initiated by his imposition of tariffs on Chinese goods. Analysts suggest that his strategy has not succeeded in intimidating China, which responded by restricting imports of rare earths and critical minerals essential for US industries. Trump sought to reverse this by encouraging China to resume purchasing American agricultural products, particularly soybeans, which are vital for US farmers. China has historically absorbed about 60 percent of global soybean exports, including around 51 percent from the US. Following the Trump-Xi summit, reports indicated that China had restarted imports of US soybeans.

In addition to agricultural products, the US urged China to limit the export of precursor chemicals used in the production of the opioid fentanyl. China came to the summit seeking relief from tariffs and the lifting of US restrictions on high-tech exports. Notably, the US has permitted Nvidia to resume discussions with China, indicating a willingness to negotiate.

The outcome of the summit included a one-year postponement of new tariffs and a 50 percent reduction of existing tariffs imposed due to China’s role in fentanyl production. The overall tariffs on Chinese products decreased from 57 percent to 47 percent. However, analysts view these measures as temporary and not indicative of a comprehensive trade agreement.

Trump’s subsequent comments on social media suggested a shift in strategic dynamics, hinting at the formation of a “G-2” between the US and China. This prospect raised concerns in India, which fears being sidelined in a new bipolar world order. The absence of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi from the Kuala Lumpur meetings underscored India’s complex position. Modi’s presence might have risked diplomatic embarrassment, especially if Trump reiterated claims of mediating between India and Pakistan, potentially undermining Modi’s image as a strong global leader.

India’s leadership now faces a significant dilemma regarding its diplomatic strategy with the US. Engaging with Trump may negatively impact Modi’s public perception, while avoiding him could cede ground to India’s strategic rivals in gaining US favor. There are three potential approaches for India moving forward:

1. **Maintain Distance**: Continue arms-length diplomacy, waiting for Trump’s focus to shift to domestic politics.
2. **Strategic Engagement**: Offer Trump apparent wins in trade negotiations while safeguarding India’s core interests, potentially requiring new diplomatic outreach.
3. **Reevaluate Strategy**: Recognize that the US may not see India as crucial for containing China, prompting a fresh approach to relations with neighboring countries and trade agreements with entities like the European Union, Australia, Canada, and Japan.

The recent interactions highlight the necessity for India to adapt its strategic master plan, ensuring it remains a significant player in a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape. The lessons from this summit reveal that while public displays of affection may not guarantee lasting diplomatic ties, the complexities of international relations demand nuanced approaches.