Goldman Sachs Raises Tesla Price Target Ahead of Q3 Deliveries

Goldman Sachs has raised its price target for Tesla (TSLA) from $300 to $395, while maintaining a ‘Neutral’ rating on the shares. This adjustment comes as the electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer prepares to release its third-quarter (Q3) delivery report. Despite the increased target, the new figure represents a potential downside of approximately 7% from Tesla’s closing stock price on Wednesday.

In a notable revision, Goldman Sachs increased its Q3 delivery estimate for Tesla vehicles to 455,000, surpassing the consensus estimate of 439,000. The firm attributed this revision to insights gathered from its global consumer survey data, as reported by TheFly. Additionally, Goldman has revised its projections for Tesla’s energy business for 2026 and 2027, reflecting recent developments regarding product launches and capacity expansions.

Long-Term Growth Outlook

Goldman Sachs predicts long-term earnings growth for Tesla, driven by advancements in autonomy and robotics. However, the investment firm cautions that its base case projections for profitability in these sectors may be more conservative than the ambitious goals Tesla has set.

Recent retail sentiment on Stocktwits for TSLA has remained in the ‘extremely bullish’ category. The platform noted that message volume surrounding the stock has consistently been at ‘extremely high’ levels. Some analysts are optimistic about the stock hitting $430, contingent upon Tesla’s success in capturing significant market share in humanoid robotics and autonomous technology. Yet, they also warned that increased competition or execution challenges could pose risks to profitability.

Goldman further indicated that improved delivery volumes in the second half of the year could be attributed to several factors, including the launch of the new Model Y L in China and recent consumer survey data. The firm also highlighted the impending expiration of a federal tax credit on electric vehicle purchases, set to conclude on September 30, which is expected to influence consumer buying behavior.

Model Y L Launch and Market Impact

In August, Tesla introduced the Model Y L, a longer six-seater variant of its highly popular Model Y SUV, specifically targeting the Chinese market, which is Tesla’s second-largest. CEO Elon Musk stated that production of this variant in the United States is not expected to commence until the end of next year, and there may be uncertainty regarding its eventual launch in the U.S. market.

Tesla’s website is actively encouraging U.S. customers to take delivery of their vehicles before the federal tax credit of $7,500 expires. This expiration is anticipated to increase the overall cost of purchasing a new electric vehicle, potentially influencing sales dynamics.

As of now, TSLA stock has gained 5% year-to-date and has surged approximately 86% over the past twelve months. The market will be closely watching Tesla’s upcoming Q3 delivery report for further insights into the company’s performance and future prospects.