2025 Forecasted as Second Hottest Year Amid Climate Crisis

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has announced that 2025 is projected to be the world’s second or third warmest year on record, likely surpassed only by the unprecedented heat of 2024. This assessment, released on December 9, follows the recent COP30 climate summit, where nations struggled to reach significant agreements on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The geopolitical context has been complicated by the United States rolling back its climate initiatives, while some countries push to weaken existing CO2 reduction measures.

According to C3S, 2023 marks the end of a three-year period during which the average global temperature exceeded 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, a critical threshold established in the 2015 Paris Agreement. C3S’s strategic lead for climate, Samantha Burgess, emphasized that these numbers are not merely statistics but indicators of the accelerating pace of climate change.

Impact of Climate Change on Global Weather Patterns

Extreme weather events have become increasingly common. For instance, Typhoon Kalmaegi struck the Philippines last month, resulting in over 200 fatalities. In Europe, Spain experienced its most severe wildfires in three decades, conditions exacerbated by climate change.

The previous year, 2022, held the record for the hottest year globally. Although natural weather patterns lead to annual temperature variations, there is a documented long-term trend of increasing global temperatures. The World Meteorological Organization has reported that the last decade has been the warmest since record-keeping began.

While the global temperature has not consistently surpassed the 1.5°C threshold on a long-term basis, the United Nations has indicated that meeting this goal is increasingly unrealistic. The organization has urged governments to accelerate efforts to reduce carbon emissions to prevent significant overshooting of this target.

Long-term Projections and Urgent Actions Required

C3S’s records extend back to 1940, corroborated by global temperature data dating to 1850. A recent update from the World Meteorological Organization suggests that the period from 2015 to 2025 will rank among the eleven warmest years on record, with the years 2023-2025 expected to be the hottest yet, averaging about 1.4°C above pre-industrial temperatures.

Additionally, the UN Environment Programme’s Emissions Gap Report for 2025 warns that if nations fully implement their climate plans, global temperatures this century could rise to approximately 2.3-2.5°C. Current policies may lead to an even higher increase of around 2.8°C. The report indicates that global emissions must decrease by 50% by 2035 to maintain a viable path towards the 1.5°C target.

Analysts have observed an unprecedented rise of 0.4°C in global temperatures over just two years, suggesting that the world may be inching closer to a concerning post-1.5°C climate regime. These findings highlight the urgent need for coordinated global action to address climate change and its far-reaching impacts.