Historic Gaza Peace Breakthrough Faces Precarious Future

In a significant diplomatic development, US President Donald Trump announced this week that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement on the first phase of a peace plan aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict in Gaza. This breakthrough, facilitated by mediators from Qatar, Egypt, Turkey, and the UAE, has initiated a ceasefire and established a framework for the release of hostages held by Hamas. This represents the most notable diplomatic achievement in the conflict since it began nearly two years ago.

Trump’s announcement, made via his Truth Social platform, conveyed a sense of optimism: “This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America.” He expressed gratitude towards regional partners who contributed to the deal, stating, “Blessed are the peacemakers.” Yet, despite this high-profile declaration, the situation remains complex and fragile.

Details of the Agreement

The Israeli cabinet approved the peace deal on early Friday, allowing the ceasefire to take immediate effect. The agreement outlines a partial withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, which is expected to be completed within 24 hours. This timeframe includes a brief period for legal objections to be filed in Israel’s High Court. Following this, Hamas will have 72 hours to release the hostages; failure to do so could lead to the collapse of the agreement.

In an effort to oversee the implementation of the deal, the United States is deploying 200 troops to the surrounding region, coordinating with observers from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, and the UAE. The oversight will be managed by US Central Command, with Admiral Brad Cooper responsible for ensuring compliance from both parties.

This agreement stands apart from previous ceasefires, not only due to its structure but also because of Trump’s assertive involvement. Earlier attempts to broker peace, including a similar three-phase plan, fell apart amid competing interests and political pressures. The humanitarian situation in Gaza has since reached catastrophic levels, marked by widespread famine, displacement, and near-total infrastructure collapse. Meanwhile, Hamas has increasingly relied on hostages as a bargaining tool, and the Israeli government faces mounting pressure from its citizens to secure their safe return.

Challenges Ahead

The current deal features a straightforward trade-off: a comprehensive hostage release in exchange for a ceasefire and a phased Israeli withdrawal, along with clear external oversight. Additionally, it highlights the need for Hamas’ demilitarisation and the establishment of a transitional governance structure in Gaza as prerequisites for long-term peace. While the Trump plan sketches a potential roadmap towards Gaza’s reconstruction and a distant Palestinian state, its vulnerabilities are glaring.

During the press conference announcing the deal, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remained silent at a separate lectern as Trump outlined the agreement, which had been reframed to align with Israel’s strategic priorities. In contrast, Hamas emerges with little more than a ceasefire and the challenge of survival following a conflict it instigated with the attack on October 7, 2023, which is noticeably absent from the deal’s terms.

The plan lacks enforceable timelines and clear mechanisms for an international stabilisation force, providing Netanyahu with sufficient ambiguity to delay or reshape the agreement’s implementation while maintaining the appearance of compliance. Conveniently for Netanyahu, Trump has indicated that should Hamas reject the deal or resist its terms, Israel would be free to “finish the job.” This statement gives Netanyahu political cover, allowing him to frame any Hamas response as a refusal, thereby resuming military actions with the backing of the United States.

As the world watches closely, the path forward remains uncertain. While the agreement represents a significant step toward peace, the precarious nature of its terms and the complex geopolitical landscape pose challenges that could threaten its success.